To discuss (a) the main methods demographers use to project, or forecast future demographic developments, (b) the justifications of plausible assumptions made regarding the future development of fertility, mortality and migration, and (c) relevant applications. Students will also be oriented to relevant projections software. Examples will be provided in Bangladesh settings as well. Also monitoring and evaluation of health programs and related indicators will be discussed.

N/A

1. It is the student’s responsibility to gather information about the assignments and covered topics during the lectures missed. Regular class attendance is mandatory. Points will be taken off for missing classes. Without 70% of attendance, sitting for the final exam is NOT allowed. According to IUB system, students must enter the classroom within the first 20 minutes to get the attendance submitted.
2. The date and syllabus of the quiz, midterm, and final exam are already given here, however, announcements will be given ahead of time. There is NO provision for make-up quizzes.
3. The reading materials for each class will be given prior to that class so that student may have a cursory look at the materials.
4. Class participation is vital for better discussing of sociological issues. Students are invited to raise questions.
5. Students should take tutorials with the instructor during the office hours. Prior appointment is required.
6. Students must maintain the IUB code of conduct and ethical guidelines offered by the School of Public Health.

The course will be based mostly on the following books [some other books and journals may be referred time to time]:

• Population Reference Bureau’s Population Handbook (Sixth Edition).

More Readings:

1. John R Weeks. Population: an introduction to concepts and issues (Eighth edition). Wadsworth Thomson Learning: Singapore. 2002.
2. Brain C O’Neill, Deborah Balk, Melanie Brickman, Markos Ezra. A guide to global population projection. Demographic Research. 2001; 4:203-288.
3. Heather Booth. Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review. International Journal of Forecasting. 2006; 22:547-581.
4. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division. Chapter VI Methodology of the United Nations Population estimates and projections. World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, Volume III: Analytical Report. 2004.
5. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Age-sex composition of Bangladesh population (Population monograph 9). Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: Bangladesh. 2015.
6. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Population projection of Bangladesh: dynamics and trends 2011-2061. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: Bangladesh. 2015.

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Students will be assessed on the basis of their overall performance in all the exams, quizzes, and class participation. Final numeric reward will be the compilation of:

• One mid-term quiz :		20%
• One assignment :		20%
• A cumulative final project report submission :		30%
• Presentation of the final project :		20%

• A participation mark (10%) will reflect tutorial engagement; it may include occasional quizzes and other assignments.
[Class attendance is mandatory; failure to do so may deduct the final marks]

The following chart will be followed for grading. This has been customized from the guideline provided by the School of Public Health.

A	A-	B+	B	B-	C+	C	C-	D+	D	F
90-100	85-89	80-84	75-79	70-74	65-69	60-64	55-59	50-54	45-49	0-44

* Numbers are inclusive

Students who are willing to audit the course are welcome during the first two classes and are advised to contact the instructor after that.

Plagiarism – that is, the presentation of another person’s thoughts or words as though they were the student’s own – must be strictly avoided. Cheating and plagiarism on exam and assignments are unacceptable.

Please see the Green Book for further information about academic regulation and policies, including withdrawal and grading, appeals and penalties for plagiarism and academic misconduct.

Students with disabilities are required to inform the Department of Law of any specific requirement for classes or examination as soon as possible.

Awarding of Incomplete or ‘I’ grades should be strongly discouraged. ‘I’ will only be allowed for students who have a valid reason (ascertained by the senior management). In situations where the student is unable to complete the course due to unanticipated illness or family emergency and has not attended at least 75% of the classes held, he / she will be asked to withdraw from that course and repeat it. In unavoidable circumstances where students have completed 75% of the classes but are unable to continue (due to illness or family emergency), incomplete grade of ‘I’ may be granted. Incomplete course has to be completed by the end of the next semester, otherwise grade ‘I’ automatically becomes grade ‘F’. The student is not required to register for the course in the next semester.

A ‘W’ grade means withdrawal. A student may decide to withdraw from a course by the deadline. Students must apply to the Program Office for withdrawal from a course with the permission of the concerned course instructor, Academic Advisor, and the Dean. Withdrawal from only one course in a semester is allowed but the students should provide valid reason along with documents while applying for the withdrawal.

A student can misses a maximum of 8 classes for a particular course. After that the course will be automatically withdrawn. A student automatically withdrawn from a course will NOT be allowed to UNDO it under any circumstances.

Change of grade is strongly discouraged. However, an instructor may request a change of grade when a computational or procedural error occurred in the original assignment of a grade. Instructor must submit the ‘Grade Change Form’ to the respective program office within one month of submitting the final grade rolls. A Grade change has to be requested within 1 month of the day of publishing the grades.